10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, 1976 to 2026
10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stood at 0 in 2026, down 26.5% on the previous period.
10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is a daily market rate from U.S. Treasury data published through FRED. Treasury yields set the baseline for borrowing costs across the economy: mortgages, corporate debt, and equity valuations all price off this curve. Since 1976 the series has ranged from -2.1 percent (1980) to 2.8 percent (2010); the latest reading is 0.4 percent for 2026, down from 0.5 percent the period before.
When this spread goes negative the curve is inverted: short rates above long rates, historically one of the most-watched recession signals. The shading marks those inversions in red.
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