NVIDIA and Intel since 2016: the decade that split the chip industry

Key takeaways

In January 2016 an Intel share ($31.02) cost more than forty NVIDIA shares in today's split-adjusted terms ($0.73). By July 2026 NVIDIA had risen 274-fold against Intel's 2.9-fold.
Intel's decade splits into three acts: a 69.6 percent slide from March 2021 to January 2025, a recovery capped by April 2026's 114.1 percent month, the best in its 55 years on Nasdaq, and a 35.4 percent fall in July 2026.
The chart above shows Intel's candles because that is where the story now moves fastest: the June 2026 intramonth record of $142.35 stood for one month before the 18A yield news took a third off the price.

What's happening

The chart draws Intel's share price as one candle per month since 2016; NVIDIA's candles over the same months are its mirror image. The two companies started this window as peers, the two American names in processors, at share prices a rounding error apart once splits are restated. The decade then rewarded one architecture and punished the other: NVIDIA's graphics processors became the substrate of AI training, while Intel lost its manufacturing lead and spent four years repricing downward, from a $64.00 monthly close in March 2021 to $19.43 in January 2025.

×274 vs ×2.9

Price change on the monthly closes, January 2016 to July 2026: NVIDIA $0.73 to $200.75; Intel $31.02 to $90.20.

Intel's three acts

Act one is the slide: 67 of Intel's 127 months are green, but the red ones own 2021 through early 2025, when delayed process nodes handed the performance lead to competitors and the stock touched $17.67 in April 2025. Act two is the comeback candle: April 2026, up 114.1 percent in a single month after a first-quarter report far above expectations and manufacturing partnerships with Tesla and Google, the company's best month in 55 years of Nasdaq trading. Act three opened in July: reports that the 18A process would not reach profitable yields until late 2026 at the earliest, alongside AMD's first quarter leading in data-center revenue, and the candle closed down 35.4 percent from June's $139.63.

NVIDIA's side of the decade has its own two crashes, 52.5 percent in 2018 and 62.9 percent in 2021 to 2022, but each resolved upward into a larger climb. Intel's chart has yet to show that second act holding.

The same industry, opposite charts

Put side by side, the two charts disagree about what kind of business semiconductors is. NVIDIA's reads like a growth story with interruptions: long green walls, red clusters that end. Intel's reads like a cyclical being repriced in both directions: four red years, then the two most violent monthly candles of either chart, one up 114.1 percent, one down 35.4 percent, three months apart. A decade ago these were the same trade.

What to watch

Whether Intel's next candles hold the $90 level or continue toward the pre-April range, which would mark the comeback as a repricing event rather than a trend. Whether 18A yield news firms up, since that is the claim July traded on. And whether NVIDIA regains its May 2026 record of $236.54, or the two charts converge for the first time in a decade.

Common questions

Which rose more, NVIDIA or Intel?

Over January 2016 to July 2026 on monthly closes, excluding dividends: NVIDIA rose 274-fold ($0.73 to $200.75, split-adjusted); Intel rose 2.9-fold ($31.02 to $90.20).

What happened to Intel's stock in April 2026?

It rose 114.1 percent, the best month in the company's 55 years on Nasdaq, after a first-quarter report far above Wall Street estimates and new manufacturing partnerships with Tesla and Google.

Why did Intel fall in July 2026?

Reports put profitable yields on its 18A manufacturing process at late 2026 or later, and AMD posted its first quarter ever leading in data-center revenue. The month closed down 35.4 percent.

Did NVIDIA ever crash like this?

Twice in the window: 52.5 percent from September to December 2018, and 62.9 percent from November 2021 to September 2022, both on monthly closes. Each was followed by a climb to new records.

Data: Intel and NVIDIA share prices as monthly OHLC candles (Twelve Data, January 2016 to July 2026; NVIDIA split-adjusted), from the Kitegraph library. The chart shows Intel; NVIDIA's candles are on its statistic page. Drawdown and return figures compare monthly closes. April and July 2026 event descriptions follow contemporaneous reporting by CNBC, Motley Fool, and Yahoo Finance.