US inflation is running above 4 percent again
The CPI rose 4.2 percent in the year through May, unwinding much of 2024's return toward target.
The reacceleration
On the annual World Bank measure, 2024 looked like the finish line: US inflation at 2.95 percent, down from 8.0 percent in 2022 and 4.12 percent in 2023. The monthly index shows what happened next. The CPI stood at 334.0 in May 2026 against 320.6 a year earlier, a 4.2 percent increase, and it has risen 2.4 percent in just the five months since December.
The 2024 convergence, for reference
What makes the reacceleration stand out is how synchronized the disinflation had been. Across the large economies, 2024 annual inflation came in at 2.0 percent in France, 2.3 percent in Germany, 2.4 percent in Canada, 2.7 percent in Japan, and 3.3 percent in the United Kingdom, with China nearly flat at 0.2 percent. The US was squarely in that pack. The 2026 monthly data has it pulling away from it again.
What to watch
Five more monthly prints arrive before year-end. If the December-to-May pace holds, 2026 will be the first year since 2022 with inflation above 4 percent, and the bond market has noticed: the 10-year yield has climbed roughly 40 basis points over the same stretch.
Kitegraph Insights (2026). US inflation is running above 4 percent again. kitegraph.com/insights/us-inflation-back-above-4. Data: FRED, World Bank.